April 2010

On 17^th March the African Union announced the imposition of sanctions on Andry Rajoelina and 108 other members of the Haute Administration de Transition (HAT), the military and the Haute Cour Constitutionelle (HCC). The measures included restrictions on visas for travel and the freezing of assets overseas. The move was seen as of limited potential impact and as more of a political gesture, which Rajoelina derided, and Jean Ping, the head of the African Union (AU), said later that the restrictions needed the support of members of the Security Council of the United Nations to be effective; France in particular had been apparently ambivalent. Certain members of the HAT called for sanctions to be imposed as a reprisal on the leaders of the opposition movements, as well as on any foreigners seen to be interfering in Malagasy affairs, in what was an allusion to the US and its ambassador but which also reflected an unfortunately increased level of xenophobia in the country. The European Union is considering further sanctions against the régime.

On 18^th March the International Crisis Group, a leading organisation involved in resolving conflicts, suggested that mediation efforts should stop trying to implement a transitional power-sharing deal and instead aim for an agreement on drafting a new constitution, a referendum on that document, free and fair elections and the clarification of the terms of amnesty agreed in Maputo. The Group criticised both the HAT for its refusal to implement the Maputo and Addis Ababa accords and also the lack of will to compromise of the other protagonists, ‘who are more concerned about securing the spoils of power than finding a solution in the national interest’.

There were violent clashes on the streets of the capital on 18^th and 19^th March between the security forces and protesters from the Madagascar Movement, a number of whom were arrested.

The rival factions were again divided on the creation of a new Commission électorale nationale indépendante (CENI), as the parties of the three former presidents did not acknowledge its legitimacy and did not submit names for the three positions to which they were entitled. Only sixteen of the possible nineteen members of the new Commission took an oath on 31^st March. In early April Monja Roindefo, the former prime minister, said that CENI could not work as it was biased to a single movement.

The rôle of the army has again been important recently. Marc Ravalomanana provoked an angry response from Prime Minister Camille Vital on 24^th March when he suggested in an interview on Radio France Internationale that he could return to Madagascar at will and that elements of the army were still loyal to him; Vital said that if Ravalomanana wanted war, he would have it, and that he was ready to die for his country, whether against forces of the SADC or others. He also said that the majority of politicians only think of their own interests once elected. General Noël Rakotonandrasana, the Minister for the Armed Forces, said the former president should avoid such provocation. On 26^th March the Comité militaire de défense nationale (CMDN) met with Rajoelina and complained of various initiatives taken without their consent - the HAT had created a number of new military units, including the Brigade de sécurité intérieure and the Forces d'intervention special (FIS). General Rakotonandrasana denied on 30^th March that the meeting he had convened between members of the military to advise the HAT was a prelude to a coup d’état. However, a commander in the FIS said there was an attempt on 2^nd April to seize the presidential Palais d’Ambohitsorohitra.

The commemoration at Ambohijatovo in the capital of the events of 29^th March 1947 was the scene of clashes. Rajoelina, Vital and Organès Rakotomihantarizaka, the Minister of Interior Security, met a hostile reception; the police used tear gas; and the HAT announced an enquiry into the incidents, and promised arrests. Rajoelina spoke at the ceremony of his determination to serve the country and to continue with plans for the Fourth Republic.

Alain Joyandet, the French Secretary of State for Co-operation and Francophone countries, and André Parant, an adviser to President Sarkozy, visited Madagascar on 31^st March, and emphasised the need for elections to be held as early as possible, a position closer to that of the HAT than the opposition. The visit also stimulated speculation on a probable meeting between Rajoelina and Ravalomanana, which the latter at first dismissed as divisive.

Members of the various churches held a sixth prayer meeting on 6^th April at which its directors said they would take a more active but peaceful part in resolving the crisis, and pledged to press in particular for the release of political prisoners. Women members of the Madagascar Movement held protests on 9^th April in which they called for the release of thirty detainees, which the Minister of Justice refused.

On 7^th April Prime Minister Vital announced that he would assume the duties of the Minister for the Armed Forces, General Rakotonandrasana, who refused at first to step down (and finally handed over office on 14^th April); Vital was duly promoted from his rank of Colonel to that of Brigadier General. In the meantime he has yet to announce the formation of a new government, supposed to be of national unity, which was due by the end of March.

The HAT on 9^th April made a further change to the senior ranks in the country in replacing Noro Robinson Andriamarolahy with Max Ramilison as the President of the Conseil d’Etat (which provides legal advice to the executive and is the administration court of last resort). The move seemed to stem from frustration at the Court’s refusal to allow various changes proposed by the HAT, such as the replacing of ambassadors appointed by Ravalomanana, who had appointed Andriamarolahy. While Ramilison said he would be independent, he is reported to be close to Norbert Lala Ratsirahonana, a special adviser to the HAT.

The régime came under pressure from the heads of the army in a meeting they held with Rajoelina on 12^th March, in which the generals demanded from the HAT within 48 hours a clear road-map for the way to find a solution to the crisis by the end of April, without specifying what the consequences might be if there was not one. Rajoelina said on 14^th April that he had written to President Sarkozy to accept a proposal from France, South Africa and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) that would form such a road-map. In particular, he agreed to Ravalomanana’s participation in talks, and it seems likely that a meeting between the two of them will now take place. The probable venue is South Africa on 25^th April, and the meeting is also due to include the former presidents Albert Zafy and Didier Ratsiraka.